Not disinfected: Biden’s vaccination plan against the COVID variant
Joe Biden’s COVID response plans have two parts. The first, the American rescue plan, is a legislative action for economic aid and financial support. The second is to resume what has been an uneven vaccine rollout. While this also requires funding – Biden has requested well over $ 150 billion in ARP – there are also many management prerogatives to shape deployment and maximize distribution. Over the past two days, Team Biden has explained their plans.
The urgency here has never been greater, for two reasons. First, the Trump administration really failed to create a national immunization strategy and apparently lied about how little it played. Second, and even more importantly, the firearms firing time has rapidly narrowed, due to the more transmissible variant B.1.1.7, which will become the predominant strain in the country by March, according to the CDC.
Despite all the bumps in the road, the United States has reached a seven day moving average of just under 900,000 daily doses, not far from Biden’s indicated rate of 1 million per day. But with B.1.1.7 imminent with some increase in cases we probably need something over 2 million a day to really breach the crisis.
There is going to be a false dawn over the next month. Cases and hospitalizations have peaked and are declining, while deaths have plateaued. But this will only last as long as B.1.1.7 is in the background. As soon as this becomes the primary mode of transmission of the virus, those numbers will skyrocket. The only escape from this terrifying reality is either something like confinement, with everyone requisitioning N95 masks (which they use), or a massive mobilization of vaccines.
So what does Biden plan to do? He owns sketched out a plan this includes opening mobile clinics in underserved communities and increasing the availability of vaccines at local pharmacies, the combination of which would put access within geographic reach of almost anyone. he would have deploy FEMA and National Guard to help set up this distribution network.
The National Association of Drugstore Chains claims that they could administer 100 million strokes in one month, surpassing the Biden benchmark by 100 million in 100 days. I was on appeal with the NACDS the other day, where officials highlighted their “extensive experience in immunizing America.” But looking at the only program that has been outsourced to drugstore chains so far, an effort with CVS and Walgreens to vaccinate nursing homes, I have to be skeptical of their abilities to quickly turn their stores into purpose. lucrative free vaccination clinics. The CVS / Walgreens plan stalled from the start, but NACDS Senior Vice President Kathleen Yeager had the nerve to say they were doing “phenomenal work” in nursing homes.
Casting is clearly something that Biden’s team has given a lot of thought to, and it’s the main bottleneck at this point, though he’s sort of unraveling. But we’re about to hit a bigger bottleneck with supply. Just over a week ago, states had only used about 29% of their supply. This number is now up to 46 percent, and with the commissioning of more efficient distribution networks, we will experience a reduction in supply without a new stock of doses being on the way.
Hopes have been dashed several times over the past few days. It became clear that there was no federal reserve vaccines as the Trump administration had suggested, drop the states that were based on a large release of doses. I’ve heard from people who got their first injection and were told they couldn’t plan for the second due to the uncertainty of the supply.
A much bigger issue is Moderna’s apparent slowdown. In the new year, production fell 36 percent. If Moderna were to meet its promised US allocation of 100 million doses by the end of March, it would have to produce 1.1 million doses per day. It is about 303,000 in January. There appear to be supply chain issues with some of the materials that go into the vaccine.
New CDC director Rochelle Walensky said she was convinced there would be enough supply to meet the 100 million target in 100 days. But again, this will not be enough to avoid a seriously dangerous and economically ruinous situation in the spring, thanks to B.1.1.7. We need twice as much and supplies are limited.
The Biden administration will use the Defense Production Act to try to resolve some supply issues, although it will take time to escalate. A possible silver lining on the supply side is the possibility of squeezing an extra dose from the shipment of vaccine vials from Pfizer. But that only works if you use “low dead space” syringes that don’t waste drugs, and government needle shipments are often “high dead space”. It is not known which company supplies high dead space syringes; the government has contracts with several supply companies, such as Smiths Medical and Retractable.
But this leads to two problems. First, remove the high dead space syringes from production so that each Pfizer vial can produce six doses instead of five, instantly increasing the supply by 20%; second, to ensure that all distributors have enough low-dead space syringes, since the government has only distributed five syringes per vial. This is a place where the Defense Production Act can step in, to make syringes.
So it’s a scramble. We knew the Trump administration would leave a mess; that has been integrated. The B.1.1.7 variant added a severe degree of urgency to the Biden team to really get this completely fixed, streamlined, and moving at double speed, in a matter of weeks.
Number of vaccine doses administered
14.3 million Sunday, against 11.9 million Friday. See above.
Today i learned
- Finally it is clearly stated: premature reopening at the end of spring leads to an increase in cases and to our current situation. Unsaid: the absence of state and local aid in the CARES law has a lot to do with it. (New York Times)
- Congresses will probably return, but daily business trips probably won’t come back. (the Wall Street newspaper)
- Trader Joe’s is now paying staff to get vaccinated. (United States today)
- Vaccine deaths appear to be confined to Norway; maybe it is a bad lot. (Bloomberg)
- Speaking of which, anti-vaccine groups have secured PPP loans. (Washington post)
- It would be very positive if the banks relaxed loan in a fair manner, anticipating a more favorable economic outlook. (New York Times)
- The recent COVID relief bill gave the banks a break on problem loans anyway. (American banker)
- What is the pandemic and all screen time made in our eyes? (New York magazine)
- Discover the absolutely terrible $ 300 Rich Man’s PPE Helmet. (SF gate)